Friday, March 5, 2010

Tournament Time!

Conference tournaments are under way, and a lot of teams have work to do to earn themselves a bid. Also, seeding will be greatly impacted by the results of the tournaments. Hopefully, some of the big questions will get answered: Are there really 34 teams that deserve an at-large bid? Who gets the last 1 seed? And perhaps most perplexing, where the hell do we seed Purdue?

Seeds are listed in order of the S-Curve. (1-4, 5-8, 9-12, etc.)

1's: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke

2's: Kansas St., Villanova, Purdue (for now...), West Virginia

3's: Ohio St., New Mexico, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh

4's: Tennessee, Temple, Wisconsin, Michigan St.

5's: Baylor, Georgetown, Maryland, BYU

6's: Texas A&M, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler

7's: Richmond, Clemson, Texas, Missouri

8's: Oklahoma St., UNLV, Florida St., Marquette

9's: Wake Forest, Northern Iowa, UTEP, Rhode Island

10's: California, Louisville, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech

11's: Florida, Utah St., St. Mary's, Notre Dame
12's: Virginia Tech, UAB, Illinois, San Diego St.

13's: Siena, Cornell, Kent St., Murray St.

14's: Oakland, Wofford, UC-SB, Sam Houston St.

15's: Weber St., Coastal Carolina, Morgan St., North Texas
16's: Quinnipiac, Lehigh, Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Jackson St.

Last Four In: Virginia Tech, UAB, Illinois, San Diego St.
First Four Out: Dayton, Mississippi, UConn, Memphis
Next Four Out: Washington, South Florida, Mississippi St., Wichita St.

Quick thoughts: -The last 4 seed was tough. Michigan St., on further review, has a pretty weak profile for such a high seed. Georgetown's profile looks slightly better on paper to me, but 9-8 in the Big East is iffy. Maryland and Baylor were right there too; Maryland lacked a NC win of consequence, and Baylor's two bad losses kept them off the 4 line.

-Hopefully some upset winners win conference tourneys in conferences like the Horizon, Pac-10, WCC, etc., because some of these teams at the bottom are just atrocious. Putting Washington on there is painful.

-Projections will go daily from this point forward.

-Right around the 9 line, it got ugly. Pretty much every at-large team from Rhode Island on was "Last Four In" material.

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