Sunday, February 28, 2010

Bubbles Bursting

Some teams really hurt their chances this weekend, most notably Rhode Island, Charlotte, and Arizona St. The A-10, which at one point seemed to have a chance at 6 bids, looks like a 3-4 bid league now. Cal grabbed a hold of the lead in the Pac-10 and should win it outright; it remains to be seen if that will be enough to get them a bid if needed.

The battle for the #1 seeds cleared itself up a little bit this week; it will be tough for the committee to reward Purdue a number 1 if struggles without Hummel, paving the way for Duke to seize the fourth #1. But watch out for Kansas St. down the stretch...

This is my bracket, as of today:

1's: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke

2's: Kansas St., Ohio St., Villanova, Purdue

3's: New Mexico, Michigan St., West Virginia, Pitt

4's: Wisconsin, Temple, Vanderbilt, Baylor

5's: Tennessee, BYU, Georgetown, Texas A&M

6's: Xavier, Gonzaga, Texas, Butler

7's: Maryland, Missouri, Richmond, Clemson

8's: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Marquette, UNLV

9's: Northern Iowa, Oklahoma St., Cal, Louisville

10's: Old Dominion, Florida St., UTEP, Florida

11's: Connecticut, UAB, Utah St., Virginia Tech

12's: Illinois, Saint Mary's, Mississippi St., Dayton,

13's: Siena, Cornell, Kent St., Murray St.

14's: Wofford, Coastal Carolina, Oakland, Sam Houston St.

15's: UC-SB, Quinnipiac, Weber St., North Texas

16's: Lehigh, Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Morgan St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Illinois, Saint Mary's, Mississippi St., Dayton

First Four Out: San Diego St., Notre Dame, Charlotte, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: Minnesota, USF, Ole Miss, Wichita St.


  1. Im just going to state some random thoughts I had on the list

    -Vandy or Tennessee I have such a tough time deciding who i think should be seeded higher!

    -i put Ok St as a 7 great numbers 4 wins vs RPI top 25 and huge victories over kansas and at KSU...i think a few bad losses they have are more than cancelled out by some of the conference wins they have
    picked up

    -charlotte you have as first four out...i agree but was wondering is last 12 games or whatever considered in the selection this year (i thought i heard it wasnt) because charlotte has been awful the past few weeks

    -i have a hard time putting OSU ahead of WVU...west va has a better rpi (6/30) better SOS (4/73) they both have 5 wins vs rpi top 50 (west va 5-5 osu 5-4) i know the away wins at MSU and Purdue are big for OSU but they have such far inferior numbers that i think West Va has to for the time being be ahead of OSU (they also have the lowest SOS of any major conference team in the RPI top 50)

    -i put baylor as a 6 but after looking again would probably move them to a not so sure about a 4 though...sell me

    signing out...TheCubanCrisis

  2. -Vandy swept Tennessee...Tenn hasn't beaten anyone away from Knoxville

    -I can definitely see your argument about OK St., particularly as an 8...they have no nonconference wins to talk about though so 7 is tough for me to do. I could see putting them at the top 8 (behind Clemson, ahead of Wake)

    -Charlotte has been awful, agreed...and they've gotten SLAUGHTERED in some big games (like 40 to Duke, 28 to Dayton, 30ish to Old Dominion)...and no, Last 12 is not on the "profile" or whatever that the committee members receive. Although recent play may still stand out in their minds some

    -OSU over WVU is even tougher because you forgot to mention WVU beat OSU...but with the #'s, I kinda give the Buckeyes a break because of the stretch where Turner was out...3-3 without him, I think they go 5-1 (L @UW) with him (which would also give them the outright lead in the Big Ten)... 20-4 with him in the lineup this year. That doesn't affect SOS obviously but it would definitely have helped RPI. A little subjectivity with that ranking probably, and the head-to-head matchup might put them behind WVU.

    -Baylor as a 4 may have been a homer since I like them (which is why it's good to have a committee opinion). But they have phenomenal computer numbers (RPI 11, SOS 28) and a gaudy record (21-6)...9-4 vs RPI top 100...Xavier win in the NC is getting better and better...T-3rd in arguably the toughest conf...have won on the road (@ASU, @Texas) more than Gtown (@Pitt only) and Tenn (no good road wins)...all in all not the STRONGEST 4 resume but I think that last 4 spot is between a bunch of team with 5 seed resumes anyway

  3. ok i still am not 100% sold on vandy because it doesnt matter if they swept tennessee because its the body so head to head cannot be involved

    i still dont know about the 4 right now for baylor but i would definitely agree with the 5

    and thats a good point without turner for osu...this will be an easier decision for everyone after tonight (i believe WVU plays Georgetown). Also i didnt put anything in about WVU over OSU for the same reason as the tenn vs vandy thing