FINAL BRACKET!

1's: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia

2's: Duke, Ohio St., Kansas St., Villanova

3's: Georgetown, Temple, New Mexico, Pittsburgh

4's: Wisconsin, Baylor, Tennessee, Purdue

5's: Vanderbilt, Michigan St., Maryland, Richmond

6's: BYU, Texas A&M, Butler, Xavier

7's: Texas, Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Clemson

8's: San Diego St., UNLV, Notre Dame, Marquette

9's: Oklahoma St., Florida St., Wake Forest, St. Mary's

10's: Missouri, UTEP, Old Dominion, Louisville

11's: Illinois, Georgia Tech, Siena, Washington

12's: Cornell, California, Minnesota, Utah St.

13's: New Mexico St., Murray St., Wofford, Houston

14's: Oakland, Montana, Ohio, Sam Houston St.

15's: North Texas, UC-Santa Barbara, Vermont, Morgan St.

16's: Robert Morris, Lehigh, ETSU, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Last In: Illinois, Cal, Minnesota, Utah St.

Last Out: Florida, Mississippi St., Virginia Tech, Seton Hall

What a day!

1's: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke

2's: West Virginia, Ohio St., Purdue, Kansas St.

3's: Villanova, Tennessee, Temple, Georgetown

4's: New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin

5's: BYU, Baylor, Maryland, Michigan St.

6's: Xavier, Texas A&M, Butler, Richmond

7's: Gonzaga, UNLV, California, Northern Iowa

8's: UTEP, Texas, Marquette, Florida St.

9's: Oklahoma St., Old Dominion, St. Mary's, Notre Dame

10's: Clemson, Wake Forest, Missouri, Utah St.

11's: Georgia Tech, San Diego St., Louisville, Cornell

12's: Illinois, Washington, Virginia Tech, Florida

13's: Siena, Rhode Island, Murray St., Oakland

14's: Akron, Wofford, UC-SB, Sam Houston St.

15's: North Texas, Robert Morris, Montana, Morgan St.

16's: Lehigh, ETSU, Vermont, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Last Four In: Washington, Virginia Tech, Florida, Rhode Island

First Four Out: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Mississippi St., William and Mary

Next Four Out: Arizona St., Mississippi, USF, Memphis

-As predicted, the A-10 bubble imploded today, as SLU and Dayton both lost mandatory games and put themselves off the bubble. (SLU, I know you're young but show up; Dayton, grow up and hold onto a lead).

-Florida still ahead of Mississippi St. despite the head-to-head matchup today. Florida has MUCH better top-flight wins and overall has a better resume than the (pathetic) one Miss St. has to offer.

-William & Mary creeps closer to the bracket, but I don't think they can actually reach it based on a possibly-subsiding bubble and the fact that Seton Hall will always be ahead of them now.

-Georgetown shoots up the rankings probably a day late.

-From about the 7-8 seeds, the field just turns ugly. Hard to order those teams.

-Xavier is O SO CLOSE to a 5 seed. A win over Richmond would do it for sure, especially with Mich St. adding a tourney slip-up to it's already-weakish resume.

-San Diego St. will be in the field. Great, huge win over New Mexico.

-Same tip of the cap to Georgia Tech. Getting Maryland on a neutral floor was HUGE.

The bottom falls out of the bubble

1's: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke

2's: West Virginia, Ohio St., Purdue, Kansas St.

3's: New Mexico, Villanova, Tennessee, Wisconsin

4's: Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Temple, Baylor

5's: Georgetown, Maryland, BYU, Michigan St.

6's: Xavier, Texas A&M, Butler, Richmond

7's: Gonzaga, Florida St., UNLV, Northern Iowa

8's: UTEP, Texas, California, Marquette

9's: Clemson, Oklahoma St., Old Dominion, Notre Dame

10's: St. Mary's, Wake Forest, Missouri, Utah St.

11's: Virginia Tech, Louisville, Florida, SDSU

12's: Cornell, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Washington

13's: Siena, Mississippi, Murray St., Oakland

14's: Akron, Wofford, UC-SB, Sam Houston St.

15's: North Texas, Robert Morris, Montana, Morgan St.

16's: Lehigh, ETSU, Vermont, Winthrop, Arkansas Pine-Bluff

Last Four In: Illinois, Georgia Tech, Washington, Mississippi

First Four Out: Seton Hall, Rhode Island, SLU, Dayton

Next Four Out: William and Mary, Minnesota, Mississippi St., USF

-The field of 65 was actually pretty easy to come up with today with the number of bubble teams that won vs. the number that lost. That will change tomorrow.

-The tough part was assembling the "barely out" teams. Lots of teams that recently picked up L's to end the season were in this area. It will be very interesting to see if any of them fall ass-backwards into a bid due to others sliding around them.

-A-10 carnage starts tomorrow so that part of the bubble picture will change a lot.

Finally, some games of substance!

1's: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke

2's: West Virginia, Ohio St., Purdue, Villanova

3's: New Mexico, Kansas St., Pittsburgh, Tennessee

4's: Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Temple, Baylor

5's: Maryland, Georgetown, Michigan St., BYU

6's: Xavier, Texas A&M, Butler, Richmond

7's: Clemson, Gonzaga, Florida St., Wake Forest

8's: UNLV, UTEP, Texas, Northern Iowa

9's: California, Oklahoma St., Old Dominion, St. Mary's

10's: Missouri, Marquette, Utah St., Notre Dame

11's: Virginia Tech, Louisville, Florida, SDSU

12's: Cornell, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Arizona St.

13's: Siena, Mississippi, Kent St., Murray St.

14's: Oakland, Wofford, UC-SB, Sam Houston St.

15's: North Texas, Robert Morris, Montana, Morgan St.

16's: Lehigh, ETSU, Vermont, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

Last Four In: Illinois, GT, ASU, Ole Miss

First Four Out: Memphis, Washington, UAB, Rhode Island

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Dayton, SLU, Mississippi St.

-Sorry USF, you needed to go further than that.

-Seton Hall, you probably needed that win more than ND.

-Jackson St. (SWAC #1 seed) lost to Grambling St., 8 seed. The SWAC will be represented in Dayton for the play-in game...

-Missouri=yuck. Way to lay an egg today.

More good games tomorrow!

Slight Reshuffling

1's: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke

2's: West Virginia, Ohio St., Purdue, Villanova

3's: New Mexico, Kansas St., Pittsburgh, Tennessee

4's: Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Temple, Baylor

5's: Maryland, Georgetown, Michigan St., BYU

6's: Xavier, Texas A&M, Butler, Richmond

7's: Clemson, Gonzaga, Florida St., Wake Forest

8's: UNLV, UTEP, Northern Iowa, Texas

9's: Missouri, Oklahoma St., California, Old Dominion

10's: St. Mary's, Marquette, Louisville, Utah St.

11's: Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Florida, SDSU

12's: Cornell, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Arizona St.

13's: Siena, Mississippi, Kent St., Murray St.

14's: Oakland, Wofford, UC-SB, Weber St.

15's: Sam Houston St., North Texas, Quinnipiac, Morgan St.

16's: ETSU, Lehigh, Vermont, Winthrop, Jackson St.

Last Four In: Illinois, Georgia Tech, Arizona St., Mississippi

First Four Out: USF, Memphis, Washington, Seton Hall

Next Four Out: UAB, Rhode Island, Dayton, SLU

Notes

-I reordered the Big 12 teams, turns out I was overrating OK St. (nothing nonconference) and slightly underrating Texas (great NC resume, can't let that be affected by recent play)

-In comparison to the bubble, I think Utah St. is safe for an at-large if they make the WAC finals, and as such they got a bump up to the 10 line.

Atleast St. Mary's finally beat Gonzaga

1's: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke

2's: West Virginia, Ohio St., Purdue, Villanova

3's: New Mexico, Kansas St., Pittsburgh, Tennessee

4's: Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Temple, Baylor

5's: Michigan St., Maryland, Georgetown, BYU

6's: Xavier, Texas A&M, Butler, Richmond

7's: Clemson, Gonzaga, Florida St., Oklahoma St.

8's: Wake Forest, UNLV, UTEP, Northern Iowa

9's: Missouri, Texas, California, Old Dominion

10's: St. Mary's, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame

11's: Utah St., Virginia Tech, Florida, SDSU

12's: Cornell, Illinois, Georgia Tech, Arizona St.

13's: Siena, Mississippi, Kent St., Murray St.

14's: Oakland, Wofford, UC-SB, Weber St.

15's: Sam Houston St., North Texas, Quinnipiac, Morgan St.

16's: Winthrop, Lehigh, Vermont, ETSU, Jackson St.

Last Four In: Illinois, Georgia Tech, Arizona St., Mississippi

First Four Out: USF, Washington, Memphis, Seton Hall

Next Four Out: UAB, Rhode Island, SLU, UConn

I don't follow EXACT bracketing rules for this projection so I'm not terribly worried about 2 BE 2 seeds and 3 BE 10 seeds for now. I'll sort that stuff out in the final projection.

Note - somehow I forgot Georgia Tech in yesterday's bubble situation. They're back today. I gotta stop doing these at 1 am.

The Bubble is Nauseating

Today helped reiterate the fact that I will be cheering very hard for teams like William and Mary, non-UTEP, Wright St, Saint Louis, etc. because the bottom of the bubble is atrocious. Hopefully a few of them will go out and EARN bids in the conference tournaments.

1's: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke

2's: West Virginia, Ohio St., Purdue, Villanova

3's: New Mexico, Kansas St., Pittsburgh, Tennessee

4's: Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Temple, Baylor

5's: Michigan St., Maryland, Georgetown, BYU

6's: Gonzaga, Xavier, Texas A&M, Butler

7's: Richmond, Clemson, Florida St., Oklahoma St.

8's: Wake Forest, UNLV, UTEP, Northern Iowa

9's: Missouri, Texas, California, Marquette

10's: Louisville, Old Dominion, Notre Dame, St. Mary's

11's: Utah St., Virginia Tech, Florida, San Diego St.

12's: Cornell, Illinois, Mississippi, Arizona St.

13's: USF, Siena, Kent St., Murray St.

14's: Oakland, Wofford, UC-SB, Weber St.

15's: Sam Houston St., North Texas, Quinnipiac, Morgan St.

16's: Winthrop, Lehigh, Vermont, ETSU, Jackson St.

Last Four In: Illinois, Mississippi, Arizona St., USF

First Four Out: Memphis, Seton Hall, Washington, UAB

Next Four Out: UConn, Rhode Island, Dayton, Mississippi St.

Addition to last night's update

Forgot to put a few things on there.

Last Four In: Illinois, San Diego St., Mississippi, Washington

First Four Out: Memphis, UConn, UAB, Rhode Island

Next Four Out: Arizona St., Dayton, Mississippi St., USF

-How awful is this group of teams? Definitely time to cheer for Wichita St., someone other than Cal, someone other than UTEP, Wright St., etc.

Tournament Time!

Pretty crazy Saturday! Some pretty big updates to the field, so here's the most recent revised version: (Some notes listed below)

1's: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke

2's: West Virginia, Ohio St., Purdue, Kansas St.

3's: Villanova, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Tennessee

4's: Vanderbilt, Temple, Wisconsin, Baylor

5's: Michigan St., Georgetown, Maryland, BYU

6's: Gonzaga, Xavier, Texas A&M, Butler

7's: Richmond, Clemson, Florida St., Oklahoma St.

8's: UNLV, UTEP, Missouri, Texas

9's: Wake Forest, Northern Iowa, Marquette, California

10's: Louisville, Old Dominion, Florida, Notre Dame

11's: St. Mary's, Utah St., Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech

12's: Cornell, Illinois, San Diego St., Mississippi

13's: Washington, Siena, Kent St., Murray St.

14's: Oakland, Wofford, UC-SB, Weber St.

15's: Sam Houston St., North Texas, Morgan St., Quinnipiac

16's: Winthrop, Lehigh, Stony Brook, ETSU, Jackson St.

-Baylor's sweep of Texas gets them to the 4 line.

-At this point, I think Duke is definitely the last #1 seed. Tough to find truly solid competition for it.

-Michigan St.'s best wins: Wisco, @Purdue(no Hummel), Gonzaga, and............Oakland. Yeah.

-9 seeds and down...still pathetic.

Calm Before the Storm

It gets frenetic from this point forward! The bracket didn't change from yesterday, so no use in re-posting it, but from now on there will be some big games basically every day.

Ohio Valley, Big South, and Atlantic Sun bids will be decided today, and Cornell clinched last night.

Tournament Time!

Conference tournaments are under way, and a lot of teams have work to do to earn themselves a bid. Also, seeding will be greatly impacted by the results of the tournaments. Hopefully, some of the big questions will get answered: Are there really 34 teams that deserve an at-large bid? Who gets the last 1 seed? And perhaps most perplexing, where the hell do we seed Purdue?

Seeds are listed in order of the S-Curve. (1-4, 5-8, 9-12, etc.)

1's: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke

2's: Kansas St., Villanova, Purdue (for now...), West Virginia

3's: Ohio St., New Mexico, Vanderbilt, Pittsburgh

4's: Tennessee, Temple, Wisconsin, Michigan St.

5's: Baylor, Georgetown, Maryland, BYU

6's: Texas A&M, Xavier, Gonzaga, Butler

7's: Richmond, Clemson, Texas, Missouri

8's: Oklahoma St., UNLV, Florida St., Marquette

9's: Wake Forest, Northern Iowa, UTEP, Rhode Island

10's: California, Louisville, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech

11's: Florida, Utah St., St. Mary's, Notre Dame

12's: Virginia Tech, UAB, Illinois, San Diego St.

13's: Siena, Cornell, Kent St., Murray St.

14's: Oakland, Wofford, UC-SB, Sam Houston St.

15's: Weber St., Coastal Carolina, Morgan St., North Texas

16's: Quinnipiac, Lehigh, Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Jackson St.

Last Four In: Virginia Tech, UAB, Illinois, San Diego St.

First Four Out: Dayton, Mississippi, UConn, Memphis

Next Four Out: Washington, South Florida, Mississippi St., Wichita St.

Quick thoughts: -The last 4 seed was tough. Michigan St., on further review, has a pretty weak profile for such a high seed. Georgetown's profile looks slightly better on paper to me, but 9-8 in the Big East is iffy. Maryland and Baylor were right there too; Maryland lacked a NC win of consequence, and Baylor's two bad losses kept them off the 4 line.

-Hopefully some upset winners win conference tourneys in conferences like the Horizon, Pac-10, WCC, etc., because some of these teams at the bottom are just atrocious. Putting Washington on there is painful.

-Projections will go daily from this point forward.

-Right around the 9 line, it got ugly. Pretty much every at-large team from Rhode Island on was "Last Four In" material.

Bubbles Bursting

Some teams really hurt their chances this weekend, most notably Rhode Island, Charlotte, and Arizona St. The A-10, which at one point seemed to have a chance at 6 bids, looks like a 3-4 bid league now. Cal grabbed a hold of the lead in the Pac-10 and should win it outright; it remains to be seen if that will be enough to get them a bid if needed.

The battle for the #1 seeds cleared itself up a little bit this week; it will be tough for the committee to reward Purdue a number 1 if struggles without Hummel, paving the way for Duke to seize the fourth #1. But watch out for Kansas St. down the stretch...

This is my bracket, as of today:

1's: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke

2's: Kansas St., Ohio St., Villanova, Purdue

3's: New Mexico, Michigan St., West Virginia, Pitt

4's: Wisconsin, Temple, Vanderbilt, Baylor

5's: Tennessee, BYU, Georgetown, Texas A&M

6's: Xavier, Gonzaga, Texas, Butler

7's: Maryland, Missouri, Richmond, Clemson

8's: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Marquette, UNLV

9's: Northern Iowa, Oklahoma St., Cal, Louisville

10's: Old Dominion, Florida St., UTEP, Florida

11's: Connecticut, UAB, Utah St., Virginia Tech

12's: Illinois, Saint Mary's, Mississippi St., Dayton,

13's: Siena, Cornell, Kent St., Murray St.

14's: Wofford, Coastal Carolina, Oakland, Sam Houston St.

15's: UC-SB, Quinnipiac, Weber St., North Texas

16's: Lehigh, Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Morgan St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Illinois, Saint Mary's, Mississippi St., Dayton

First Four Out: San Diego St., Notre Dame, Charlotte, Cincinnati

Next Four Out: Minnesota, USF, Ole Miss, Wichita St.

2 and a half weeks later...

A lot of changes in the bracket! Hopefully I'll get a stock watch out on Sunday and a new bracket every Monday/Friday.

Let's get to it! (conf. champs in bold; listed in order)

1's: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Purdue

2's: Duke, Kansas St., Villanova, West Virginia

3's: Ohio St., New Mexico, Michigan St., Georgetown

4's: Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Texas, Temple

5's: Pittsburgh, BYU, Baylor, Gonzaga

6's: Tennessee, Butler, Texas A&M, Richmond

7's: Wake Forest, Xavier, Missouri, Maryland

8's: Clemson, Florida St., Oklahoma St., Georgia Tech

9's: Marquette, UNLV, Florida, UTEP

10's: California, Louisville, Northern Iowa, Illinois

11's: Connecticut, Old Dominion, UAB, Rhode Island

12's: Utah St., Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, Dayton

13's: Cornell, Siena, Murray St., Kent St.

14's: Wofford, UC-SB, Weber St., Oakland

15's: North Texas, Coastal Carolina, Sam Houston St., Robert Morris

16's: Jacksonville, Stony Brook, Morgan St., Lehigh, Jackson St.

Last Four In: Rhode Island, Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, Dayton

First Four Out: Mississippi St., San Diego St., Cincinnati, Charlotte

Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Arizona St., Mississippi

Inaugural Bracket Projection (2/8/10)

Welcome to Brackonomics! After 3 years of amateur bracketology, my friends and I are finally ready to make the step towards validation and start a blog. In the future we plan to offer a tournament stock watch along with this projection.

*Through games played 2/7/10

1's: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova

2's: Purdue, West Virginia, Kansas St., Duke

3's: Georgetown, Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St.

4's: Texas, Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Tennessee

5's: BYU, Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Pittsburgh

6's: Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Temple, Northern Iowa

7's: Butler, Baylor, Missouri, UNLV

8's: Florida, Mississippi, Xavier, Rhode Island

9's: Richmond, Charlotte, Maryland, Cal

10's: UAB, Cornell, St. Mary's, Siena

11's: Florida St., Illinois, Clemson, Dayton

12's: Oklahoma St., Old Dominion, UTEP, Marquette

13's: Utah St., Murray St., Northeastern, Kent St.

14's: Coastal Carolina, Sam Houston St., College of Charleston, Oakland

15's: Pacific, Weber St., Morgan St., Robert Morris

16's: Lipscomb, Jackson St., Arkansas St., Stony Brook, Lehigh